{"id":3047,"date":"2026-04-28T14:38:28","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T13:38:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/?p=3047"},"modified":"2026-04-28T14:38:28","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T13:38:28","slug":"healthy-life-expectancy-is-unwell","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/?p=3047","title":{"rendered":"Healthy life expectancy is unwell"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-from-2026-04-28-12-06-04.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"736\" height=\"742\" src=\"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-from-2026-04-28-12-06-04.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3048\" srcset=\"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-from-2026-04-28-12-06-04.png 736w, https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-from-2026-04-28-12-06-04-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-from-2026-04-28-12-06-04-150x150.png 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 736px) 100vw, 736px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/healthandsocialcare\/healthandlifeexpectancies\/datasets\/healthstatelifeexpectancyallagesuk\">https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/healthandsocialcare\/healthandlifeexpectancies\/datasets\/healthstatelifeexpectancyallagesuk<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday an extraordinary thing happened: the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/c20q07w3gl9o\">news story<\/a> about the UK&#8217;s falling healthy life expectancy led the BBC News for a while, ahead of the King&#8217;s visit to the US in the wake of the assassination attempt on Trump&#8217;s team and the latest twists in the Mandelson affair. And so it should: over the decade 2012\u201314 to 2022\u201324, healthy life expectancy in the UK fell by about 2 years, to 60.7 years for males and 60.9 years for females.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And that is just the average. As we can see from what I felt was the most informative graphic from the Health Foundation&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.health.org.uk\/reports-and-analysis\/analysis\/healthy-life-expectancy-trends-in-the-uk-a-watershed-moment\">report<\/a>, some of the local authority areas have seen precipitous falls over the same period. Merthyr Tydfil has fallen from 57.6 years to 50.1 years. North Lanarkshire has fallen from 58.3 years to 52.3 years. And in England, Sandwell has fallen from 57.7 years to 51.3 years. In the 2012-14 data, only one region had no local authorities with a healthy life expectancy below the state pension age. By 2022-24, most regions have a healthy life expectancy below 66 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) is defined as the number of remaining years that an individual can expect to live in &#8220;very good&#8221; or &#8220;good&#8221; general health. Rates of &#8220;very good&#8221; and &#8220;good&#8221; general health by sex and five-year age band are captured from the following survey general health question on the Annual Population Survey (APS) and in the Census 2011 and Census 2021:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>How is your health in general; would you say it was\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>Very good?<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Good?<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Fair?<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Bad?<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Very bad?<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I last wrote about HLE <a href=\"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/?p=1204\">in 2017<\/a> in response to John Cridland&#8217;s review of the State Pension Age. My view at that time, when healthy life expectancy was plateauing rather than falling like a stone, was that it was time to consider a universal basic income model. Then only the poorest decile was going to be condemned to 18 years of working in poor health until they could claim a state pension. Now the overall averages in some local authorities have moved down to join them, this consideration appears rather more urgent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/?p=930\">In 2014<\/a>, I was concerned about what happens if the healthy life expectancy doesn&#8217;t increase in line with the planned increases to the State Pension Age and, towed along 10 years behind it, Normal Minimum Pension Age (NMPA). Well here we are: 26 of the little local authority blobs are at or below the current NMPA of 55. This nearly doubles to 49 local authorities (assuming the fall in HLE doesn&#8217;t continue, which feels like a heroic assumption at the moment) when the NMPA is due to rise to 57 in April 2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the Health Foundation report says:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>While healthy life expectancy has declined, life expectancy has remained broadly stable for the UK overall, indicating that the deterioration is not primarily driven by changes in mortality. However, in more deprived areas, life expectancy remains below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting mortality plays a greater role in reducing healthy life expectancy in these areas. Worsening self-reported health remains a key factor throughout the UK, highlighted by a falling proportion of life spent in good health and by wider evidence of declining health among the working-age population.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other countries have not experienced this, illustrated by the UK sliding down the international comparison tables:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-from-2026-04-28-14-08-14.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"727\" height=\"733\" src=\"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-from-2026-04-28-14-08-14.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3052\" srcset=\"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-from-2026-04-28-14-08-14.png 727w, https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-from-2026-04-28-14-08-14-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-from-2026-04-28-14-08-14-150x150.png 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 727px) 100vw, 727px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/data\/gho\/data\/indicators\/indicator-details\/GHO\/gho-ghe-hale-healthy-life-expectancy-at-birth\">https:\/\/www.who.int\/data\/gho\/data\/indicators\/indicator-details\/GHO\/gho-ghe-hale-healthy-life-expectancy-at-birth<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In the complete table the UK is sandwiched between Puerto Rico and China, with (from World Bank data) <a href=\"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD\">GDP per capita<\/a> respectively of $39,344 and $13,303, compared to the UK&#8217;s GDP per capita of $53,246 (all from 2024). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Andrew Mooney, The Health Foundation&#8217;s principal data analyst, said: &#8220;The UK has the highest levels of obesity in western Europe and there has been a surge in mental ill health, especially among young people.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps, instead of obsessing over GDP growth, we should be focusing on what countries like Iceland, Norway, Australia and New Zealand have been doing in recent years to tackle population health. I think it would make us all feel better.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday an extraordinary thing happened: the news story about the UK&#8217;s falling healthy life expectancy led the BBC News for a while, ahead of the King&#8217;s visit to the US in the wake of the assassination attempt on Trump&#8217;s team and the latest twists in the Mandelson affair. And so it should: over the decade [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,16,7,24,22,11,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actuarial","category-covid-19","category-demographics","category-health","category-media-politics","category-pensions","category-regulation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3047"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3047\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3056,"href":"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3047\/revisions\/3056"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}