{"id":1223,"date":"2017-09-03T16:00:13","date_gmt":"2017-09-03T16:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/?p=1223"},"modified":"2025-11-27T15:37:08","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T15:37:08","slug":"we-are-paying-too-much-attention-to-the-wrong-actuaries-index","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/weknow0.co.uk\/?p=1223","title":{"rendered":"We are paying too much attention to the wrong actuaries’ index"},"content":{"rendered":"

The\u00a0FTSE All-Share Index, originally known as the\u00a0FTSE Actuaries All Share Index, along with the FTSE 100, represent nearly all of the market capitalisation and the top 100 companies by size listed on the London Stock Exchange respectively. They are mentioned in all BBC news bulletins. When they go up, we all feel better. When they go down, they are seen as portents of doom.<\/p>\n

Let me show you a different actuaries’ index instead:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Figure 1 shows the ACI and each of the components. The composite ACI represents the average of the six components (with sign of change in cool\/cold temperatures reversed). The ACI is increased by reduction in cold extremes, consistent with increased melting of permafrost and increased propagation of diseases, pests, and insects previously less likely to survive in lower temperatures. A positive value in the ACI represents an increase in climate-related extremes relative to the reference period.<\/p><\/div>\n

The threat of climate change\u00a0is real, independent of speculative trading and the news media cycle, and increasing with each degree<\/a> of warming we are unable to stop. Alongside this are the increasing risks of extreme weather events, which is most neatly described for North America currently by the Actuaries Climate Index<\/a>. This focuses on\u00a0six components in particular which have the most impact on human societies:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Frequency of temperatures above the 90th percentile (T90);<\/li>\n
  2. Frequency of temperatures below the 10th percentile (T10);<\/li>\n
  3. Maximum rainfall per month in five consecutive days (P);<\/li>\n
  4. Annual maximum consecutive dry days (D);<\/li>\n
  5. Frequency of wind speed above the 90th percentile (W); and<\/li>\n
  6. Sea level changes (S).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    It then tracks them all over time, as shown in the graph above.<\/p>\n

    It seems clear to me that we should be reacting much less to the booms and busts of economic cycles\u00a0and much more to climate-related threats. This is for two main reasons:<\/p>\n

    1. More people are at threat of death or injury as a result of climate<\/a> change than even the 2008 crash in our financial systems<\/a>. The World Health Organisation (WHO) predicts that, between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000\u00a0additional deaths per year, from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress. However, the additional deaths are already here. Taking just two examples from the WHO:<\/p>\n